Arya News - Middle-class households are showing more restraint in how they spend. One contributing factor is the rise in layoffs.
JAKARTA – Public discourse has recently picked up on two popular acronyms that reflect a growing mismatch between high mall foot traffic and sluggish sales. Rohana (rombongan hanya nanya) , or “groups that only ask,” and Rojali (rombongan jarang beli) , or “groups that rarely buy.”
These phrases are now used to describe a familiar scene: crowds roaming shopping centers, engaging with displays, asking questions but leaving without making a purchase.
Although this may appear to be a minor change in behavior, mall owners and shops are already feeling the effects. The gap between foot traffic and actual spending might be an indication of a change in the way middle-class urban consumers approach malls and shopping centers.
Indonesia’s middle-income class plays an outsized role in domestic consumption. According to the World Bank, this group includes those with monthly per capita expenditures ranging from 3.5 to 17 times the poverty line, approximately Rp 2.1 million (US$127.90) to Rp 10.3 million in 2025.
Based on the Statistics Indonesia (BPS) 2024 National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas), 48.2 million Indonesians fall into this category, accounting for 17.1 percent of the population. They contribute 38.3 percent of all household consumption, a signal of how much domestic demand hinges on this group.
But this engine of consumption seems to be easing off. Middle-class households are showing more restraint in how they spend. One contributing factor is the rise in layoffs.
Between January and June 2025, the Manpower Ministry recorded 42,385 job losses, a 32 percent rise year-on-year (yoy). Formal job growth also remains sluggish. The share of formal workers edged down from 40.8 percent in February 2024 to 40.6 percent in February 2025.
Moreover, economic uncertainty remains elevated, especially with ongoing turbulence in the global economy.
This unease is also visible in sentiment data. The Income Expectation Index (IEP), part of Bank Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence Survey, has been falling since the start of the year. In June 2025, the IEP reached 133.2, the lowest level since December 2022.
To its credit, the government has not stood idly by. A wave of wage subsidies (BSU) was disbursed in mid-2025 to support lower-income households.
While the impact of such policies is hard to isolate precisely, data from the Mandiri Spending Index (MSI) suggests some traction. Among lower-income groups, MSI’s saving index increased by 2.2 percentage points. Assistance like BSU may have helped cushion some of the financial pressures faced by vulnerable households.
Yet, the Rojali–Rohana phenomenon seems to be less about the lower-income group, and more evident among the middle and upper-middle class. These groups have the means and access to visit shopping centers, but their behavior within those spaces has become more restrained.
Using QRIS transaction data from Bank Mandiri, we analyzed recent changes in spending patterns within mall ecosystems. The Rojali–Rohana phenomenon is evident based on three key observations: a growing preference for experience-based consumption, increasingly selective spending on products and a smaller decline in online transactions compared to offline channels.
First, there is a growing appetite for experience-based consumption. We observed that spending activity has moved away from goods and toward services like dining, entertainment and leisure.
Between January and May 2025, the number of customers transacting at experience-related merchants such as restaurants, cinemas and playgrounds rose by 102 percent yoy. In contrast, product-based merchants such as fashion, electronics and household goods saw a lower customer growth rate of only 62.5 percent yoy.
With this in mind, we believe mallgoers tend to spend more on experiences like dining or entertainment than on tangible products. Thus, the Rojali phenomenon refers more to the declining appetite for purchasing physical goods.
Second, even when it comes to product spending, consumers are becoming more selective.
Our data shows that both the value and frequency of purchase per customer are trending downward. From January to May 2025, average spending per customer on goods dropped by 19.1 percent yoy, while shopping frequency fell by 24.5 percent.
As people spend less and shop less often, it shows they are thinking twice before buying. They are comparing, questioning and aiming for the best value. It is a pattern that mirrors both Rohana and Rojali behaviors. Interestingly, the pattern is less severe among experience-based merchants. In that category, average spending grew slightly by 0.4 percent, and shopping frequency declined by a smaller margin of 1.5 percent.
Third, some spending may have shifted online. In exercising the data, we found signs of weakening purchasing power in 2025 compared to last year. But the impact does not seem to be felt evenly across all channels.
Between January and May 2025, average spending per customer on offline channels fell by 20.1 percent yoy, while online transactions dropped by a smaller margin of 4.2 percent yoy. The same pattern appears in shopping frequency, which declined by 14.0 percent offline but only 1.3 percent online.
This gap may point to a portion of product spending moving online, drawn by better prices, convenience and frequent promotions. In this context, malls may serve as spaces for entertainment or product research before purchases are made elsewhere.
When combined, these patterns contribute to the explanation of the growing discrepancy between mall visitation and retail sales. The actions of Rojali and Rohana might be related to customers adopting new habits and making more thoughtful choices when faced with financial strain.
For policymakers, this calls for a sharper understanding of where support is needed. Much of the policy focus in recent years has targeted the lowest income groups, and rightly so. But the middle class can no longer be overlooked. If this group continues to hold back, it could weigh on broader consumption in the long run.
For businesses, especially those operating in physical retail, these behavioral shifts require a fresh response. Malls and retailers may need to reimagine themselves as experienced hubs, offering compelling reasons for consumers to return and to spend.