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            No more coups in Thailand, but who can be sure?

            Tuesday, July 8, 2025 - 07:59:50
            No more coups in Thailand, but who can be sure?
            Arya News - Defence Minister Phumtham Wechayachai has asserted that the mindset of the military leadership has evolved in response to global shifts and the changing social context.

            BANGKOK – Nine months into his role as Defence Minister, Phumtham Wechayachai has asserted that the mindset of the military leadership has evolved in response to global shifts and the changing social context.
            He highlighted the ongoing restructuring of the military to be more compact, reducing personnel and focusing on acquiring only the necessary modern weaponry and technology, in line with global advancements.
            This vision has brought significant changes to several key defence projects. Notably, the previously delayed purchase of submarines has moved forward, with Phumtham authorising the proposal to be added to the Cabinet agenda before transitioning to his new role at the Ministry of Interior.
            As a result, the previously stalled submarine procurement project has been set in motion. Before Phumtham transitioned to the Ministry of the Interior, he signed off on the approval to include it in the Cabinet agenda, with a significant change in the engine specification—from the originally planned German-made engines to those produced in China. Additionally, he requested approval to extend the project’s timeline.
            Phumtham also outlined plans to proceed with the Air Force’s selection of the Swedish-made Gripen E/F fighter jets, with the proposal set for Cabinet consideration in mid-July.
            Meanwhile, the Navy’s procurement of frigates is on track to meet the original requirement for two vessels, rather than the previously suggested one.
            At the annual budget committee meeting, both government and opposition members endorsed the strategic value of these projects.
            The Army is also set to continue its acquisition of helicopters, drones, and wheeled armoured vehicles, all of which are included in the draft budget for 2025.
            Additionally, the national defence plan may require budgetary support to enhance border security infrastructure, addressing immediate needs in line with evolving defence requirements.
            Similarly, the lesson from past coups indicates that the outcomes have not been worth the cost. Not only do such actions lead to national regression and a lack of global acceptance, but they also fail to resolve political conflicts, as the situation ends up returning to square one.
            The military, as a result, becomes the scapegoat for a government and prime minister who fail to manage state affairs, leading to a crisis of public trust. However, it has managed to exit gracefully.
            This is evident in the declaration to “freeze coups” by the Army Chiefs, starting with Gen Narongphan Jitkaewthae and continuing with Gen Charoenchai Hinthao, with the current chief, Gen Phana Khlaeoplotthuk, maintaining a steady position.
            Given Gen Phana’s calm, quiet nature, it is difficult to predict his next move, which has attracted the attention of the political arena, as he remains the only military leader still serving until 2030, the other military branch leaders, including the Navy and Air Force chiefs, are set to retire in September 2025.
            The image of the military chiefs has shifted away from politics, focusing instead on their role as professional soldiers committed to serving within the constitutional framework, upholding the nation, religion, the monarchy, and the people, while defending sovereignty and ensuring national security in all aspects.
            As for the ongoing political crisis, it is expected to be handled through political processes, with independent bodies stepping in for checks and balances, as the situation continues to evolve towards a resolution in July and August.
            The Constitutional Court has issued an order for Paetongtarn to suspend her duties as Prime Minister, with a 15-day deadline set for her to respond to the allegations. There is an option to request two extensions, each lasting 15 days, bringing the total to 45 days. However, any extensions beyond the initial 15-day period will be subject to the Constitutional Court’s approval.
            Phumtham stated, “As for the coup, even if they try, it is unlikely to happen. During my time in the Ministry of Defence, I spoke with commanders from all four branches of the military, and they all confirmed that the country is in crisis, and they want to help us get through it. The idea of a coup is not even in the minds of senior military officers. They want us to resolve this issue.”
            He added, “The notion of using lawfare is merely metaphorical. I believe the justice system is an integral part of democracy and must proceed. If there are questions, everyone has a responsibility to provide clarification. I trust that the law has the country’s best interests at heart, and I don’t see it as a problem.”
            However, Thai politics is changing rapidly, with each day’s situation affecting the stability of the Prime Minister’s office. As Paetongtarn’s position becomes more fragile, the upcoming mass rally by the “United Land Power to Defend Sovereignty” group in August is likely to intensify the situation.
            Therefore, the factors at play today cannot predict the future. While a coup may seem unlikely, no one can guarantee that it won’t occur if the situation spirals out of control.
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