Arya News - Fantasy football analyst Matt Harmon breaks down the major deal the Steelers made to acquire the veteran receiver.
After years of taking swings on often mercurial talents at the position on days 2 and 3 of the NFL Draft, Pittsburgh is making a big move for a known commodity at the position, after trading for former Seattle Seahawks star , DK Metcalf. The Steelers will also sign their new wideout to a five-year, $150 million contract. It’s a massive commitment to Metcalf, as this will now put him just behind A.J. Brown as the fourth-highest-paid receiver in football on an annual salary basis.
Back to the "known commodity" part of this equation; I do think we’re at a point in Metcalf’s career where the player “is who he is.” That’s a very, very good starting X-receiver in this league but I wouldn’t call Metcalf a top-12 receiver. I say this even as a long-time admirer of his game dating back to his time at Ole Miss, and I"ve thought he was one of the most painfully overthought receiver prospects from a route-running standpoint that I can remember.
It’s easy to constantly call back to Metcalf’s physical abilities and imagine there’s another step for him to take. We’re six years into his career at this stage. It’s likely that he’s plateaued at this very good but not quite elite level of player. He’s strong against man coverage and one of the more underrated receivers at defeating press off the line but he too often doesn’t play to his frame in contested situations, nor does he work back to the ball in zone to present a consistently reliable target.
At the beginning of last season, I thought we might finally be witnessing a turning of the corner for Metcalf. In Weeks 1-5, he was fourth among wide receivers in receiving with 421, trailing only Nico Collins, Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson — truly elite company. However, he trailed on from that point forward, as an injury and some of his all too familiar bad habits caused him to get leap-frogged by Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who was one of the most efficient receivers in the league , as the top target in Seattle. From Weeks 6 to 18, Metcalf ranked 30th among wide receivers in yardage, falling between names like his new teammate, George Pickens and Quentin Johnston.
He went from keeping the company of the game’s elite to falling down to the bucket of “volatile X-receivers.” Somewhere in between that cavern is the perfect encapsulation for Metcalf as a player, if we’re being real.
Pittsburgh was desperate for a veteran wide receiver presence and it had been around the fringes of trade discussions for guys like Brandon Aiyuk and Davante Adams in the past. It"s likely overshooting for his services but it needed to remake this room. My attention now turns to Pickens, who, based on a number of factors, is a candidate to get dealt this offseason . There are some archetype overlaps between him and the newest Steelers wideout.
Fantasy fallout
I think it’s pretty difficult to construe this move as a win for Metcalf’s fantasy outlook.
There is much to be determined about the Steelers offense from a personnel standpoint. If Pickens is dealt and no other major target earner is added, Metcalf does have a chance to own a lion’s share of the target tree. I also like his fit with Arthur Smith from a route deployment standpoint. Smith wants his No. 1 receiver to line up at X to run in-breakers off play action. Metcalf fits better on those patterns than the straight-line X-receiver deployment we saw for him in Ryan Grubb’s offense.
Is all that enough to offset significant concerns about a run-heavy system with quarterback questions combined with Metcalf’s own limitations? It’s certainly not enough to erase those worries entirely, but it’s part of the reason I won’t completely cross him off my draft board.
There’s significant fallout back in Seattle, as well. Metcalf’s departure along with that of Tyler Lockett sets in stone Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s status as the unquestioned No. 1 receiver. However, I thought that was settled fact anyway based on last year’s film. I’d be stunned if Seattle doesn’t add to a room that’s now led by JSN and Jake Bobo at the top two spots. Any sort of “bump” Smith-Njigba gets in the wake of this move is completely offset by the fact the Seahawks just traded away their starting quarterback in Geno Smith and don’t have a clear path to a tangible 2025 upgrade.